Locally Calibrated Probabilistic Temperature Forecasting Using Geostatistical Model Averaging and Local Bayesian Model Averaging
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Locally Calibrated Probabilistic Temperature Forecasting Using Geostatistical Model Averaging and Local Bayesian Model Averaging
The authors introduce two ways to produce locally calibrated grid-based probabilistic forecasts of temperature. Both start from the Global Bayesian model averaging (Global BMA) statistical postprocessing method, which has constant predictive bias and variance across the domain, and modify it to make it local. The first local method, geostatistical model averaging (GMA), computes the predictive ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Monthly Weather Review
سال: 2011
ISSN: 0027-0644,1520-0493
DOI: 10.1175/2010mwr3511.1